Uob Kay Hian Daily Top Pick, 14 Nov 2016

Cab, 7174  Close, 1.65  Buy TP, 1.79, 1.86  Support, 1.56  SL, 1.54

Time Frame, 2 Weeks to 2 Months

Flbhd, 5197   Close, 1.68   Buy, TP, 1.99, 2.12   Support, 1.51   SL, 1.49

Time frame 2 weeks to 2 months

Jtiasa, 4383  Close, 1.40  Buy TP, 1.56, 1.68  Support, 1.30  SL, 1.29

Time frame, 2 weeks to 2 months

Thanks

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M+ Online Morning Buzz – 14Nov16

Dow Jones: 18,847.66 pts (+39.78pts, +0.21%)
The Dow notched another record closing after extending its gains for the fifth straight session on last Friday, buoyed by gains in financial shares

FBM KLCI: 1,634.19 pts (-18.55pts, -1.12%)
As the FBM KLCI has breached the 1,645 immediate support level, we might see further pullback on the key index towards the 1,630 support level

Crude Palm Oil: RM2,974 (+RM80, +2.76%)
Crude palm oil prices jumped to its highest level in 4 years, owing to the weakness in Ringgit Malaysia against the US Dollars. The immediate resistance is located around the RM3,000 level

WTI Crude Oil: $43.41 (-$1.25, -2.80%)
Crude oil extended its losses on last Friday after US has reported an increase in the number of oil rigs. Crude oil prices might continue to hover between US$43-US$46 levels.

Gold: $1,227.64 (-$31.56, -2.51%)
Gold prices continue to trend on a negative tone, breaching below the US$1,250 support level, amidst the renewed buying interest in riskier assets. Support will be set around US$1,200.

Economic Releases:
China – China Retail Sales – 14Nov16, 10:00AM
Eurozone – Eurozone Industrial Production Index – 14Nov16, 6:00PM

Bursa Malaysia Trade Statistics – 11Nov16
Institutions: Net BUY 605.1 mln (59.7%)
Retail: Net BUY 85.8 mln (13.3%)
Foreign: Net SELL 690.9 mln (27.0%)

Potential Momentum Stocks – 14Nov16
Stock Name: RSAWIT (5113)
Entry: Buy above RM0.505
Target: RM0.535 (5.9%), RM0.585 (15.8%)
Stop: RM0.485 (-4.0%)
Shariah: Yes
Technical: Breakout-pullback-continuation pattern

Stock Name: KAREX (5247)
Entry: Buy above RM2.52
Target: RM2.64 (4.8%), RM2.74 (8.7%)
Stop: RM2.45 (-2.8%)
Shariah: No
Technical: Short-term consolidation breakout

Source: Bloomberg, M+ Online

++++++++

Market News Roundup

1⃣ IOIPROP has successfully tendered for the land for RM7.77b that ideally located within the Marina Bay area, Singapore, reportedly the highest for a government land sale.

2⃣ CAMRES has received feed-in tariff approval from the Sustainable Energy Development Authority Malaysia for a 7MW renewable energy plant in Taiping, Perak, for a period of 16 yrs.

3⃣ IHH is divesting its stake in PCH Holding – the holding entity for the group’s China portfolio of primary care clinics and greenfield hospital projects – to China’s Taikang Insurance for RM689.6m cash.

4⃣ BHIC has bagged a RM15m contract from the Defence Ministry for the maintenance and supply of spare parts for the Skyguard radar and 35mm Oerlikon guns for the Malaysian Armed Forces.

5⃣ CENTURY has reached an amicable settlement with NESTLE after CENTURY agree will pay NESTLE’s subsidiary, RM2.25m as full and final settlement of their claims.

6⃣ WCT has received an offer from EPF to acquire an office space that forms part of “The Paradigm PJ” integrated development for RM347m.

7⃣ IRIS has launched a defamation suit against Dipon Gulf Infotech, DG Infotech & Dipon Group, for placing a notice of a petition in The Star and Utusan Malaysia.

8⃣ DBE has renewed 2 agreements valued at RM50m to supply poultry products to the operators of the KFC restaurant chain in the peninsular.

9⃣ Used vehicles financier ELKDESA has announced a rights issue to raise up to RM59.84m, mainly to have more hire purchase disbursements.

TITIJAYA has proposed a sub-division of each of its 50 sen share into two shares of 25 sen apiece. Following share split, they plans to issue up to 1.104b free warrants on the basis of 1:2

+++++++++

KLSE OUTLOOK FOR 14-11-2016 (MONDAY):

THE RINGGIT AND OIL’S DIRECTION ARE THE TWIN EVILS THAT CAN MAKE OR BREAK OUR STOCKS. – FRED TAM.

Dear all,

Our FBM-KLCI closed lower by 18.55 points or 1.12% at 1634.19 as emerging market shares and currencies slumped on Friday on fears of higher interest rates under a new president Trump.

Investors fear that Trump’s fiscal policies to reflate the U.S. economy would be inflationary, pushing U.S. interest rates higher and driving dollar-based assets up.

The ringgit fell to 4.4930 or 6.3% at one point before closing at 4.3700 or a loss of 3.46% against the greenback. This is the ringgit’s lowest since 18/1/2016 when it hit 4.4700.

Chart 1 shows the vulnerability of our ringgit. Based on the chart pattern of a “rounding bottom” breakout, the ringgit is enroute to retest its 18/1/2016 high of 4.4700. A breach of this key resistance would see further weakness to retest 4.5900 and its all-time high of 4.8800 clocked on 7/1/1998 about 8 months before then prime minister Datuk Seri Dr. Mahathir implemented capital controls on 1/9/1998.

If you are of the same view as us, then you should be looking to buy or hold stocks that are from the export sector. We have attached in today’s newsletter a list of “export sector” stocks for your information. Unfortunately, not many of these export sector stocks are up-trending, unlike the previous occasion in 2015. Be really selective.

Stocks that we picked that are still up-trending are: (Available in our detailed newsletter). Note plantation shares may benefit from the weak ringgit.

Avoid import sector stocks and index linked stocks as more foreign funds may be expected to liquidate their shares and remit their money back to the U.S. to take advantage of the imminently higher interest rates back home.

Charts 2-4 depict the ringgit weakening against a rising Singapore dollar, Japanese Yen and Australian dollar. These three charts suggest the ringgit may weaken further.

Crude oil, however, may strengthen to the $76 mark and this could help shore up the weak ringgit for the medium term (see Chart 5).

The Dow, on the other hand shows great strength. It just closed at a new record high last Friday, and with a very bullish “up-gap”. The Dow closed 39 points higher, at 18,847.

The news out of the U.S. may point to a very uncertain start to the Trump presidency, with riots, controversies, court cases, etc, but the Dow chart is saying otherwise. The pattern is that of a “rounding bottom breakout” pattern. What this pattern reflects is that of investment funds, on balance, still buying into U.S. stocks as if to say they are confident that President Donald Trump can take them out of this rut they are in and avoid a recession.

Have a great Monday but be really conservative. The ringgit and oil’s direction are the twin evils that can make or break our stocks.

Best regards,

Fred Tam
MFTA(USA), M. Phil(MMU)., MSTA(UK).,
CFTe.(USA)., ACCA(UK)
Principal Lecturer of Asia-e-University-PCFTA-EMBA Course
Malaysia’s First Recipient of the Master of
Financial Technical Analysis (IFTA-USA)

F1 Academy of Technical Analysis
Block B, Floor 23A-17, The Scott Garden
Scott Soho Duplex Suite, 289, Jalan Klang Lama
58000 Kuala Lumpur
Contact No:03-7972-4090
Website:www.f1traderacademy.com
www.fredtambookstore.com
www.fredtamnewsletter.com

All rights reserved. The above message contains information which may be confidential or privileged to Fred Tam’s subscription list. If you are not the intended recipient, be aware that any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of this information is prohibited. If you have received this transmission in error, please notify the sender immediately or contact Fred Tam at fredtam6@gmail.com.

Disclaimer: Investments involve risks, including possible loss of principle and other losses. These articles and charts are provided for information only and should not be construed as as a solicitation to buy or sell any of the instruments mentioned herein. The author and/or his staff may have positions in some of these instruments.The author shall not be responsble for any losses or lost profits resulting from iinvestment decisions based on the use of the information contained herein.If investment and other professional advice are required, the services of a licensed professional person should be sought.

++++++++++++

Reuters-The Dow Jones industrial average ended at a record closing high on Friday, capping off its best week since 2011 after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the U.S. presidential election.

Since his triumph on Tuesday, investors have been betting on Trump’s campaign promises to simplify regulation in the health and financial sectors and boost spending on infrastructure.

“Wall Street is going to be watching a lot of (Trump’s) appointments and policy announcements to see whether it validates the more optimistic tone we’ve seen in the markets in the past few days,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist and director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments in Atlanta, Georgia.

The S&P 500 financial index .SPSY has gained 8 percent in the past three sessions and risen to levels not seen since 2008 during the financial crisis. The financial index has still not recovered to levels seen before the crisis.

Industrials .SPLRCI have surged 5 percent since the election and healthcare .SPXHC is up 3 percent.

Tempering sentiment among stock investors, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Friday economic growth prospects appear strong enough for a gradual hike in interest rates, but the U.S. central bank is monitoring an increase in long-term government borrowing costs.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI climbed 0.21 percent to end the week at 18,847.66 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 0.54 percent to 5,237.11.

The S&P 500 .SPX declined 0.14 percent to 2,164.45, weighed down by weakness in energy stocks.

For the week, the Dow rose 5.4 percent, its biggest gain since 2011. The S&P 500′s 3.8 percent gain for the week was its strongest in two years.

The Nasdaq biotechnology index .NBI fell 0.64 percent on Friday but ended the week up 10 percent, its best week since 2000.

+++++++++++
TradingSolution:
Bursa Malaysia Stocks
Monday 14/11/2016

Latest Currency exchange is RM4.41

Ringgit Weaken, Methods to Hedge and re-adjust your portfolio!!

IF you have recently bought some stocks because you have done their analysis on fundamentals, technical, news, good coming quarter results or just because you like it, then for some reasons our Ringgit was attacked, weaken by 5%+ and unfortunately the stocks you bought do not benefit with US Dollar. Now you are afraid, do not know what to do…
Unless you are super investor, stocks that you bought are deeply undervalue, still very confident with your portfolio growth then just ignore this article.
Else, I am suggesting the follow method:

Method 1: Buy at least one USD exportation/plantation stocks to pair up with your stocks.

Method 2: Sell half of your stocks then use that money to buy USD stocks to pair up.

Method 3: Sell less than half, maybe quarter of your stocks, use that money to buy USD call warrant stocks. You must pick and read carefully the details. Eg: conversion/expired/issuer. This is suitable for those who got experiences in options.

Method 4: I will leave it for those who have better idea, you may message me (Sell all stocks does not counted)
What you can choose to pair up?
Supermax, supermax call warrants, topglove,topglove call warrants, careplus, ruberex, comfort, esceramic and etc…
Hevea, mieco, flbhd, jaycorp, evergreen and etc …
Kretam, Rsawit, Tdm, cepat , Mhc and etc…

Probably you will ask, what to do if USD is strengthen back ???
For those who have idea for the question above, you may message me
For those who wanted to know what to do if USD is strengthen back, I maybe will give a suggestion for next article
++++++++++++++++

Plantation Stock(1-2month)

  • Kmloong    TP1: 3.8   TP2: 4
  • TSH    TP1;2  TP2: 2.15
  • BPLANT    TP: 1.7
  • THPLANT   TP1; 1.3   TP2: 1.5
  • CEPAT   TP1: 1   TP2:1.15
  • RSAWIT    TP1: 0.6    TP2: 0.675
  • TDM  TP: 0.8
  • KRETAM   TP1:0.6   TP2:0.64

Expecting plantation will moving soon. Weak RM and low storage will lift up the sector as proven in their net profit

+++++++++++

Logic Trading Analysis Channel:
BURSA MALAYSIA MARKET IDEAS MONDAY (14/11/2016):

FBMKLCI RM WEAKENING SHOCK BUT SUPPORTED

Dear All,

The FBMKLCI closed lower at -18.55 point or -1.12% to close at 1634.19.

FBMKLCI fall last week after RM turn weak to as high as RM 4.70+ and stop at RM 4.40+. Based on last year, if RM remain at around RM 4.40, our index are not going to fall too much. Worst at 1500. Unless RM turn much more weaker.

DJIA last week is dinosaur bull after Trump winning as USA President. This bull is extra ordinary, marking a very strong believe that Trump will make American great again. Correction are expected, as long as supported at first support 18600, market in DJIA remain quite bull.

Since our market shock by RM weakening, some export related stock have short term push up.

Beside I am focusing on TITIJAYA, WCT, PESONA and some others.

Welcome to our channel :
https://telegram.me/ltachannel !

Make your own firework if you cannot find one in your life this Monday !

“Goreng Tetap Goreng” !

Yours Sincerely,
Logic Trading Analysis

+++++++

BursaKakis Channel :
BKs Technical Ideas 14/11/2016
1) Cepat (Live call @ 0 82 on 11/11)
2) Inno (Live call @ 0.855 on 11/11)
3) Pohuat

Kindly refer to charts posted in BKs Channel.

Our Telegram Link: telegram.me/bursakakis

Our Facebook Link : https://www.facebook.com/groups/192414771167397/

DISCLAIMER: The comments here are for sharing and learning purposes and do not represent a recommendation to buy or sell. Kindly consult your remisiers or dealers before you take any action. Thank you.

+++++++++

CIMB Trading Ideas 14/11/2016

1) Pohuat
2) Wtk

Kindly refer to charts posted in BKs Channel.

Our Link: telegram.me/bursakakis

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